Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Washington - 1½ +240 over Atlanta

1:05 PM EST. Brad Lord (RHP- WSH, 3.38 ERA) gets the start for Washington against Grant Holmes (RHP- ATL, 3.85 ERA). Lord has been the steadier run preventer of the two, carrying the lower ERA while giving the Nationals a solid foundation on the mound. Holmes has also pitched well enough to keep Atlanta competitive, but there is nothing in this starting matchup that warrants treating the Braves as a prohibitive favorite, particularly with Washington getting a beefed-up number on the reverse run line.

The difference between these two starters is simply not large enough to justify the price attached to Atlanta. Lord has done an excellent job limiting damage during his current run, while Holmes has been respectable without showing the type of overwhelming strikeout profile that would make us want to lay a big number on the road. This sets up much differently from a matchup where one club has a clear advantage at the top of the rotation.

We went right back to Washington in this same spot and the reasoning has not changed. The pitching remains close, the game is being played in Washington, and the market is once again giving us a number that is simply too attractive to pass up. We do not need to find a complicated angle here. The value comes from backing the home side when the starting-pitching matchup is essentially a toss-up.

Atlanta may have the more recognizable name on the other side, but Holmes has not created enough separation from Lord to justify the market treating the Braves as such a strong side. Washington has the better ERA from its starter and home-field advantage, while the reverse run line gives us the kind of cushion that makes this wager worthwhile. We are going right back toWashington today. The pitching is close, the number is too good, and we are taking the beefed-up price on the Nationals once again.

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer

Bet365 Early Payout – How It Works

Straight Bets:

If the team you back to win goes up by the designated number of points at any time during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full immediately, even if the opposing team later comes back and wins the game.

Parlays & Same Game Parlays:
If a team you’ve selected goes up by the designated number of points that selection will be marked as WON in My Bets. Any remaining legs of the parlay will continue to run as normal.

Once a selection is marked as won under the Early Payout rules, it cannot be reversed, regardless of what happens later in the game.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------