Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Pittsburgh -1½ +255 over St. Louis

2:15 PM EST. Pittsburgh  is the play here and taking the beefed-up reverse run line. The straight number does not offer enough value for our liking, but once the market lets us lay a run and a half, the equation changes considerably. St. Louis is coming off a win in the series opener, but we are not interested in chasing yesterday's result. We are looking at today's matchup and the price attached to it, and Pittsburgh is being offered at a number that gives us plenty of room to work with.

Kyle Leahy has put together a respectable season for St. Louis, but the underlying numbers have not always supported the surface ERA. His xERA was a major concern earlier in the season, with Statcast also showing considerable hard contact against him. More recently, he has cleaned up some of those issues, but this remains a pitcher whose current ERA tells a better story than some of the underlying indicators.

That makes this an attractive spot to take Pittsburgh on the reverse run line rather than getting  a small return on the money line. We are essentially asking the Pirates to win by two runs, and the inflated price gives us substantially more value than the conventional side. The first game of this series was decided by three runs, and Pittsburgh now gets another opportunity against a St. Louis pitching staff that has shown some volatility.

This is exactly the type of number we want to attack. We are not laying a big price, we are not paying for the Cardinals' home-field advantage and we are not relying on Pittsburgh to win a one-run game. We are taking the better number and expecting the Pirates to put enough pressure on St. Louis to turn this into a multi-run victory. Pittsburgh -1.5 is the play.

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