Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Kansas City +120 over Cleveland

Michael Wacha (RHP- Kansas City, 3.50 ERA) 

Tanner Bibee (RHP- Cleveland, 3.98 ERA)

7:10 PM EST. We are going to the Kansas City side in this matchup, and the pitching numbers give us enough reason to take the road dog. Michael Wacha enters with the lower ERA, and the veteran right-hander has done a better job of limiting damage while keeping the free passes under control. Tanner Bibee's 3.98 ERA is respectable, but there is not enough separation between these two starters to justify treating Cleveland as a significantly superior side.

Wacha's current profile is the one we prefer from a run-line perspective. He has been more efficient with his pitches and has generally kept traffic from turning into crooked innings. The strikeout ceiling is not as high as some of the game's elite arms, but that is not what we need from him tonight. We need quality innings, limited free passes and the ability to keep Cleveland from creating early separation, and Wacha's current numbers fit that assignment.

Bibee has the better swing-and-miss component, but his 3.98 ERA tells us the overall results have not matched the strikeout ability. Kansas City does not need to win the starting-pitcher comparison by a wide margin. The important point for us is that Wacha has been the more effective run-prevention pitcher by ERA, while the gap in the underlying categories is not large enough to make this matchup one-sided.

This is the type of road spot we are willing to take with Kansas City. We are not expecting Wacha to completely dominate Bibee; we are expecting the veteran to keep the game close and give the Royals an opportunity to capitalize later. Kansas City is our side today. The pitching matchup is considerably tighter than the price suggests, and that makes the Royals worth backing on the road

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