Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Athletics -1½ +225 over Texas

J.T. Ginn (RHP- Athletics) vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP- Texas)

9:40 PM EST. J.T. Ginn is the arm we want on our side in this matchup, and his recent work gives the Athletics a strong foundation at home. Ginn has been showing the kind of underlying profile we look for when backing a pitcher on the reverse run line: quality strikeout ability, manageable walks and an ERA that has been supported by the skills behind it. The right-hander has consistently shown he can miss bats while limiting the free passes, putting himself in position to work ahead and keep Texas from putting together extended rallies. FanGraphs lists Ginn as a right-handed pitcher for the Athletics and tracks his current strikeout, walk and expected-run metrics.

MacKenzie Gore brings plenty of strikeout ability to the other side, but his current results are not telling the whole story in a positive way. His July ERA climbed to 6.82, while his 3.58 xERA during the month pointed toward better pitching underneath the surface. More importantly for this matchup, his recent underlying numbers show a pitcher who has been generating strikeouts while keeping the walks under control, but the Athletics get him in their home park and will have the advantage of facing a left-hander. Gore's current season profile sits around 9.9 K/9 with a 3.4 BB/9, while his season xERA is below his actual ERA, showing some separation between the results and the underlying performance.

The key for us is the difference in what these two pitchers are bringing into this particular game. Ginn's ability to attack the strike zone and generate swings and misses gives the Athletics a chance to establish control early, while Gore's recent 6.82 ERA creates an opportunity for the home lineup to make him work. We do not need the Athletics to simply win this game — we are getting the reverse run line, which gives us considerably more room to work with. That makes Ginn's strikeout ability and control especially important because every clean inning puts the Athletics in a better position to build the type of lead we need.

We are taking the Athletics on the reverse run line. Ginn gives us the pitching profile we want, the matchup puts a left-hander across from the home club, and the underlying numbers give us enough confidence to lay the extra run and a half in search of the better price. The Athletics have the right pitcher to set the tone, and we expect the home side to do enough offensively to turn this into a comfortable victory over Texas.

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