Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Washington +135 over Chicago

Cade Cavalli (RHP- Washington, 3.57 ERA)

Chicago Cubs (TBA)

4:05 PM EST. Cade Cavalli enters this matchup with a current statistical profile that has become one of the more dependable pieces of the Washington rotation. Through 128.2 innings, Cavalli has 141 strikeouts against 39 walks, giving him a 9.86 K/9, 2.73 BB/9 and 3.62 K/BB ratio. His 3.57 ERA is supported by a 3.59 FIP and a 3.39 xFIP, while his 1.30 WHIP shows that the overall performance is not being carried by run prevention alone. His 25.5% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate are particularly important indicators of his current form. 

The recent numbers make the case even stronger. Cavalli has produced six consecutive quality starts, with a 2.75 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and a 36-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio across his last 36 innings. That stretch gives him a 9.00 K/9 and only 2.00 BB/9, while the 4.50 K/BB ratio shows excellent control accompanying the strikeout production. He has also been consistently working deep enough into games to keep the pressure off the Washington bullpen. 

The Chicago side is listed as TBA, which makes a pitcher-to-pitcher comparison impossible at this stage. That actually puts more emphasis on Cavalli's established current numbers. His 3.57 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 3.39 xFIP, 9.86 K/9 and 2.73 BB/9 provide a measurable baseline, while Chicago has yet to provide a confirmed starting pitcher for the comparison. The available official matchup information has also listed Cavalli as Washington's starter for today's game. 

From a pure starting-pitching standpoint, Washington has the stronger statistical position because Cavalli is bringing both recent run prevention and quality underlying metrics to the mound. His current six-start quality-start streak, 36-to-8 K/BB mark and 2.75 ERA over his last 36 innings represent exactly the type of present-form numbers that deserve attention. With Chicago's starter still unannounced, Washington is the side to back at home today.

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