Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Atlanta  +130 over New York

Grant Holmes (RHP – Atlanta Braves) – 3.81 ERA

Cam Schlittler (RHP – New York Yankees) – 2.27 ERA

1:35 PM EST. Grant Holmes enters this matchup with the more appealing underlying profile than his ERA alone suggests. His xERA sits in the mid-3.00 range, while his strikeout rate has remained a useful weapon at roughly 9.0 K/9. Holmes has also kept his BB/9 manageable, giving Atlanta a starter capable of working through lineups without constantly putting extra runners on base. His current combination of strikeouts, control and expected run prevention makes him a competitive road option.

Cam Schlittler has produced an excellent 2.27 ERA, but his underlying metrics aren't quite as dominant as the surface number. His xERA is closer to the mid-3.00 range, while his K/9 remains strong around 10.0. Schlittler has shown good swing-and-miss ability, though his BB/9 has been somewhat higher than Holmes', creating additional traffic and longer innings. The gap between the two ERAs is therefore considerably larger than the gap in their underlying performance.

Atlanta has the type of pitching matchup that makes the road price attractive. Holmes doesn't need to match Schlittler's impressive ERA; he needs to keep the game under control and prevent New York from building an early lead. His current xERA, strikeout rate and command give him the tools to accomplish that, while Schlittler's higher expected numbers suggest Atlanta is facing a pitcher who is more vulnerable than his ERA indicates.

 New York has the better-looking ERA, but Atlanta owns a much narrower statistical disadvantage once the underlying numbers are considered. Holmes brings the steadier current profile, and his ability to generate strikeouts while limiting walks gives Atlanta a legitimate path to winning this game. Take the Braves to pull the road upset.

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