Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

New York +135 over Chicago

Will Warren (RHP - New York 4.46 ERA)

Shota Imanaga (LHP - Chicago 3.72 ERA)

2:20 PM EST. Will Warren's overall ERA still paints him as a back-end starter, but his underlying indicators continue to suggest there's more upside than the surface numbers imply. His xERA has consistently tracked lower than his ERA, thanks to solid swing-and-miss ability and an improving strikeout profile. Warren is generating close to a strikeout per inning with a K/9 around 9.0 while keeping his walk rate manageable at roughly 3.0 BB/9. His fastball has shown more life recently, and his secondary pitches have produced a healthy whiff rate, allowing him to work out of trouble instead of relying on balls finding gloves. Against a Cubs lineup that can become overly aggressive against right-handed pitching, Warren has the arsenal to dictate at-bats.

Shota Imanaga has been dependable all season, but his recent peripherals suggest he hasn't been quite as dominant as his reputation. His xERA sits a touch higher than his traditional ERA, while his strikeout rate has settled into the good-but-not-elite range at around 8.5 K/9. Imanaga continues to display outstanding command with fewer than two walks per nine innings, yet he's become more susceptible to hard contact whenever hitters force him into deeper counts. New York's lineup is built around patience and power, making this a difficult stylistic matchup for a pitcher who thrives on getting ahead early.

The Yankees remain one of baseball's most disciplined offensive clubs, consistently working counts and forcing opposing starters into stressful innings. That approach pairs nicely with Warren's improving form, creating an edge on both sides of the ball. New York also owns one of the stronger late-game relief groups in the league, giving the visitors a significant advantage once the starters exit. This matchup feels much closer than the market suggests, and there is plenty of value backing the road team. The Yankees have the more complete profile today, and they're well-positioned to leave Chicago with another road victory.

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