Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Atlanta -1½ +160 over Baltimore

Grant Holmes (RHP – Atlanta) – 3.89 ERA

Trevor Rogers (LHP – Baltimore) – 4.31 ERA

7:05 PM EST. Grant Holmes has certainly developed into one of the Braves' more dependable starters, pairing his 3.89 ERA with an xERA that remains comfortably below 4.00. His strikeout rate sits above 9.5 K/9, while his BB/9 has stayed below 3.0, giving him an excellent blend of swing-and-miss ability and command. Holmes has also limited hard contact throughout the season, a key metric that continues to support his underlying profile.

Trevor Rogers enters with a 4.31 ERA, but the advanced metrics remain less encouraging. His xERA trends higher than his traditional ERA, suggesting his run prevention has outperformed the quality of his underlying performance. Rogers has posted a strikeout rate in the neighborhood of 8.0 K/9, but his BB/9 has hovered around 3.5, creating additional baserunners and elevated pitch counts. Atlanta's lineup has consistently ranked among the league's most disciplined against left-handed pitching, forcing starters into deeper counts while generating quality contact throughout the order.

The Braves also possess the type of offensive profile that can create separation once the game reaches the middle innings. Their combination of patience, power, and contact makes them difficult to navigate multiple times through the order, especially against a pitcher whose underlying metrics point toward regression. Holmes has provided Atlanta with steady outings and has consistently worked deep enough into games to hand the ball to the bullpen with a lead.

Atlanta owns the advantage on the mound, carries the superior strikeout profile, and matches up well against a left-handed starter whose advanced metrics lag behind his surface numbers. The Braves have all the ingredients to win this game by multiple runs, making the alternate run line the preferred way to attack this matchup.

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer

Bet365 Early Payout – How It Works

Straight Bets:

If the team you back to win goes up by the designated number of points at any time during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full immediately, even if the opposing team later comes back and wins the game.

Parlays & Same Game Parlays:
If a team you’ve selected goes up by the designated number of points that selection will be marked as WON in My Bets. Any remaining legs of the parlay will continue to run as normal.

Once a selection is marked as won under the Early Payout rules, it cannot be reversed, regardless of what happens later in the game.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------