Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Baltimore +135 over Toronto

7:07 PM EST. Brandon Young (RHP – BAL) draws the start for Baltimore and enters with a 3.35 ERA, 3 wins, and 33 strikeouts. The 6-foot-6 right-hander has been one of the Orioles' steadiest arms recently, putting together four consecutive quality starts and already showing he can handle Toronto's lineup after a strong outing against the Blue Jays earlier this season. Young doesn't possess overpowering strikeout numbers (6.9 K/9), but he has done an excellent job limiting damage, keeping Baltimore in games and consistently working deep enough to turn leads over to the bullpen.

Trey Yesavage (RHP – TOR) counters for Toronto with an impressive 2.19 ERA and 39 strikeouts through 37 innings. The rookie has premium swing-and-miss stuff, but he is still a young pitcher making adjustments at the major-league level. Yesavage has issued 17 walks, resulting in a 1.16 WHIP, and Baltimore will be seeing him for the first time. While unfamiliarity can favor the pitcher early, it can also create volatility when a lineup begins forcing deep counts and elevating pitch totals. The Orioles' offense has enough patience and power to capitalize if the rookie's command wavers.

Baltimore offers the value as a road underdog because the starting-pitching gap may be smaller than the market suggests. Young has been in excellent form and brings more professional experience into a divisional matchup, while the Orioles have already proven they can compete tightly with Toronto despite recent one-run losses in this series. If Young continues his recent run of quality starts and Baltimore forces Yesavage into high-leverage situations early, the Orioles have a strong path to an upset victory. Getting plus money behind a pitcher carrying a 3.35 ERA against a rookie starter makes Baltimore an attractive underdog play.

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