Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

L.A. Angels +155 over Tampa Bay

7:10 PM EST. This is exactly the type of underdog we're looking for: a live dog with an emerging pitcher on one side and an overvalued pitcher on the other.

Walbert Ureña (RHP – LAA) isn't a household name yet, but he may not stay under the radar for much longer. The 22-year-old right-hander has quietly put together an intriguing profile built around ground balls, weak contact, and an arsenal that is much more advanced than most young pitchers his age. Ureña generates ground balls at an elite rate, thanks largely to a sinker and changeup combination that produce heavy arm-side movement and keep hitters pounding the ball into the dirt.

While his strikeout numbers don't jump off the page, there are signs that more swing-and-miss ability could be developing. Ureña has already recorded 36 strikeouts in 38 major league innings this season and generated an elite 16.7% swinging-strike rate in his most recent outing. That's the type of number that gets our attention. His changeup has become a legitimate weapon, generating weak contact while mirroring the movement of his sinker, making life difficult on opposing hitters.

There are still some growing pains. Walks remain an issue and command can occasionally drift. However, this is exactly the type of young pitcher that can outperform expectations because the market hasn't fully caught up to his development. The Angels may have found another ground-ball machine capable of following a similar path to José Soriano.

Nick Martinez (RHP – TB) continues to post terrific surface numbers, but underneath those results lies one of the biggest warning signs in baseball. Martinez enters with a sparkling 1.51 ERA, but his expected ERA sits at 4.34. He owns a modest 9% K-BB rate and an 8.5% swinging-strike rate, both indicators of a pitcher surviving more than dominating.

The smoke-and-mirrors act has been impressive. Martinez has allowed two earned runs or fewer in all ten of his starts, but he's also benefited from a .266 BABIP and an unsustainable 92.9% strand rate. Those numbers almost always move back toward league averages eventually. When they do, the ERA tends to rise in a hurry.

The market continues to price Martinez based on the results while ignoring the underlying indicators. That's where the value comes from. Tampa Bay is asking bettors to pay for perfection from a pitcher whose peripherals suggest regression is looming.

The Angels lineup has been inconsistent, but at this price we don't need perfection. We simply need the market's perception of Martinez to be wrong. Ureña's upside, combined with Martinez's glaring regression indicators, makes this one of the more attractive underdog opportunities on the board.

This is a beautiful setup. One pitcher is gaining value with every start while the other is living off results that are becoming increasingly difficult to sustain. Nick Martinez at -180 is absurd. 

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