Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Pittsburgh +105 over Chicago

1:35 PM EST. There is no reason the Cubs should be favored here.

Chicago is reeling. The Cubs have dropped eight straight games and just got swept at home by Houston. This offense is completely out of sync right now. Over their last 13 games, the Cubs are averaging just 2.9 runs per game while hitting .179 with a .558 OPS and a miserable 60 wRC+. Those are some of the worst offensive numbers in baseball over that span. The pressure is mounting, the losses are piling up and this lineup looks like a group pressing for answers rather than playing freely.

Carmen Mlodzinski (RHP - PIT) gets the start for the Pirates. While his overall profile isn't going to generate many headlines, he has been extremely effective at PNC Park, posting a 2.78 ERA over 110 career innings there. He already faced these Cubs earlier this season and worked 5.1 scoreless innings. That outing came before Chicago's current offensive collapse. Mlodzinski now draws a Cubs lineup that has struggled badly against right-handed pitching during this losing streak and has shown very little ability to string together quality at-bats.

Ben Brown (RHP - CHC) gets the ball for Chicago. Brown's underlying metrics are respectable. His 3.02 expected ERA and 52% ground-ball rate suggest there is some upside, and he has done an excellent job neutralizing left-handed hitters, holding them to a .181 batting average and .477 OPS. However, this remains just his fourth start after spending most of the season working out of the bullpen. Chicago is asking a relatively unproven starter to stop a freefall on the road, and that's a difficult assignment for any pitcher.

The Pirates have quietly been much more productive at home, averaging 5.4 runs per game with a .782 OPS at PNC Park. They have handled right-handed pitching well in their own building and are in a favorable spot against a Cubs team that is simply not playing good baseball. Pittsburgh is also catching Chicago at the perfect time, with confidence clearly lacking in the visitors' dugout.

The market appears to be pricing the Cubs based on their season-long numbers instead of what they're doing right now. Current form matters. Chicago can't score, can't win, and now heads into Pittsburgh as a road favorite against a team that has been strong at home. That's a difficult case to make.

The Cubs may eventually snap out of this funk, but asking bettors to lay a price with a club riding an eight-game losing streak is a tough sell. The value is on the home dog.

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