Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Miami -1½ +175 over NY Mets

Max Meyer (RHP - Miami) vs. Freddy Peralta (RHP - New York)

4:10 PM EST. This isn't a play against Freddy Peralta (RHP - NYM). Peralta remains one of the more reliable starters in baseball, with decent strikeout numbers, who has recorded 200-plus strikeouts in three consecutive seasons. His underlying metrics have been remarkably consistent for years. Still Peralta has issued 15 walks over his last 26 innings. His ERA is 4.07 and his expected ERA over his last five starts is 4.63. 

Meanwhile, Max Meyer (RHP - MIA) is pitching at another level right now. Meyer enters with a sparkling 2.85 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, but unlike many pitchers riding strong surface numbers, the underlying indicators fully support what we're seeing. Through 53 innings, Meyer has posted a 26% strikeout rate and a 14.7% swinging-strike rate while consistently turning in quality starts. His command has improved, his hard-contact rates are down and hitters simply aren't squaring him up with any consistency. The former first-round pick has always possessed premium stuff. The difference now is that he's putting everything together.

In fact, one could make the argument that Meyer has quietly developed into one of the most dominant starters in the National League. Every time he takes the mound, the numbers seem to get stronger. His confidence is growing, his strikeout totals continue to climb and he's becoming increasingly difficult to score against. The home environment only strengthens the case. Miami's ballpark suppresses right-handed power, which should help neutralize one of the Mets' primary offensive weapons, while Meyer owns a stellar 2.16 ERA at home compared to nearly 4.00 on the road.

The Mets are certainly capable of winning behind Peralta, but the market continues to price Meyer more like a promising young arm than the emerging frontline starter he has become. Miami is offering value because the perception hasn't caught up to the performance.

At plus money spotting 1½-runs, we'll back the hotter pitcher, and a Marlins club that has a legitimate chance not only to win but to win comfortably.

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