Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Pittsburgh +145 over Philadelphia

4:05 PM EST. Bubba Chandler (RHP - PIT) enters this matchup with a 4.62 ERA and while the command issues are impossible to ignore, there’s still plenty of upside attached to the young right-hander. Chandler’s walk rate has ballooned to 15%, but the bigger concern has actually been the drop in strikeout production compared to last season. After posting a 25% strikeout rate and a strong 14.1% swinging-strike rate in his earlier major-league sample, those numbers have dipped noticeably this year. Even so, Chandler still possesses premium velocity and swing-and-miss stuff capable of overpowering lineups when he’s ahead in counts. More importantly, he’s backed by a Pirates offense that has been one of the hottest groups in baseball over the last few weeks.

Cristopher Sánchez (LHP - PHI) has been excellent statistically with a 2.13 ERA and remains one of the better strikeout arms on the board, but this isn’t an ideal matchup for him. Pittsburgh enters this game leading all of baseball in May with a massive 126 wRC+ and the Pirates have been crushing the ball at home, carrying an impressive .808 OPS in their own park. The lineup is suddenly producing consistently from top to bottom and Philadelphia now faces a Pittsburgh offense playing with confidence and aggression early in counts. Sánchez has great stuff, but even elite pitchers become vulnerable when facing lineups this locked in offensively.

What can we say, we love a good old home dog on an inflated line.Win or lose we'll take it on the chin and keep on rolling! Backing Pittsburgh as a home underdog makes plenty of sense because this price feels overly tilted toward the Phillies based almost entirely on the starting pitching matchup. The Pirates are playing their best baseball of the season offensively and their ability to generate pressure throughout the lineup makes them dangerous against any pitcher right now. Chandler doesn’t need to dominate — he simply needs to keep Pittsburgh competitive long enough for the offense to continue doing what it has been doing all month. Philadelphia remains dangerous, but the Pirates have been one of the hottest teams in baseball at home and this feels like another spot where the market is undervaluing their current form. At plus money, Pittsburgh is the side worth backing outright.

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