Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

St. Louis +115 over San Diego

4:10 PM EST. We backed St. Louis Cardinals in the first two games of this series and see no reason to jump off now. Even in yesterday’s loss, the Cardinals still outhit San Diego Padres 7-5. San Diego is surviving on walks and timely sequencing right now, and that’s not the type of profile that usually supports inflated prices.

This also sets up as another fade on Walker Buehler (RHP – SD). The name still carries weight, but the pitcher isn’t close to what he once was. Since returning from Tommy John surgery, the swing-and-miss has disappeared, the velocity has backed up, and the command has become unreliable.

The numbers this season back that up. One quality start in seven tries, an ERA north of five, and a weak strikeout profile despite pitching half his games in one of the friendliest pitcher parks in baseball. That’s not bad luck. That’s deterioration. Hitters are seeing him well, and when pitchers stop missing bats, trouble usually follows.

On the other side, Kyle Leahy (RHP – STL) is far from dominant, but he mixes pitches well, throws enough strikes, and has done a respectable job limiting damage. The Cardinals don’t need an ace performance here. They just need a cleaner outing than what San Diego is likely getting from Buehler.

This line is still leaning too heavily on reputation and logo recognition. San Diego remains overpriced, while St. Louis continues to compete well in this series and create enough offense to stay dangerous.

At plus money, the value remains with the Cardinals..

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