Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Washington +105 over St. Louis

6:45 PM EST. On the surface, both Andre Pallante (RHP - St. L) and Zack Littell (RHP - WAS) come into this one with spotless 0.00 ERAs, but this is where digging into the analytics gives us the edge. Pallante’s profile leans heavily on contact management—he’s not a big strikeout arm, and his xERA and xFIP historically sit higher than his ERA due to limited swing-and-miss stuff. That means he’s often pitching to contact and relying on batted-ball luck and defense. When that margin tightens, especially on the road, things can shift quickly if hitters start finding gaps instead of gloves.

Littell, on the other hand, quietly brings a more stable underlying profile into this matchup. His command and ability to limit walks help keep his xFIP in a more favorable range, and he does a better job controlling innings by avoiding free passes. While he’s not overpowering either, Littell’s approach is built on efficiency and sequencing—two traits that tend to hold up better over time than relying on contact suppression alone. If both pitchers regress—as early 0.00 ERAs almost always do—the one with the cleaner underlying metrics and command edge is typically the safer bet to outperform expectations.

The market is treating this like a coin flip tilted slightly toward St. Louis, but the deeper numbers suggest Washington has every bit the pitching foundation to compete here. When you can grab plus money at home in a matchup where both starters carry regression flags and the edge leans subtly your way, that’s a position worth taking. In a sport driven by small margins and long-term value, backing the home dog in a spot like this isn’t just a play—it’s the right play.

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