Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Portland +6 -110 over L.A. Clippers

12:35 PM EST. Trevor Rogers’ 2025 stat line looks spectacular on the surface — a 1.81 ERA in 109 innings — but the underlying indicators suggest that performance was built on shaky ground. His hit rate and strand rate were both unusually favorable, and those are two of the least stable pitching metrics from year to year. When a pitcher strings together 14 straight starts allowing two runs or fewer, the market tends to remember the streak and forget the context. Regression is not a theory here — it’s a probability.

Rogers did regain velocity and introduced a new sweeper, which helped him navigate lineups more effectively, but sustaining that level of run prevention is another matter. Pitchers who rely on suppressed contact and favorable sequencing often see their numbers normalize quickly once the luck evens out. This is a classic case of the market paying for last year’s peak performance. If others want to pay for last year's bottled lightning, wish them luck.

Nathan Eovaldi, on the other hand, continues to deliver quality innings when healthy. Injuries interrupted his season — triceps soreness in June and a rotator cuff strain in late August — but when he was on the mound, the skill set remained intact. His ground-ball rate stayed strong, his walk rate was excellent, and his strikeout rate ticked upward, producing some of the best underlying ratios of his career. The durability risk is real, but the effectiveness is not in question.

We're backing the veteran arm with a stable skill profile against a pitcher whose recent success carries clear regression risk.

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