Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Toronto -1½ +115 over Oakland

7:07 PM EST. Kevin Gausman gets the ball for Toronto, and this is exactly the type of spot where backing a proven frontline starter against a rebuilding lineup makes sense. Gausman logged 193 innings last season with a 3.59 ERA, a 3.79 SIERA, and a strong 17.9% K-BB%, all indicators of a pitcher who still misses bats and limits damage. His splitter remains one of the most effective out pitches in baseball, and when that pitch is working, hitters are forced to chase. That’s a dangerous combination for an Oakland lineup that struck out 23% of the time against right-handed pitching on the road last season.

On the other side, the Athletics’ starter carries several red flags that the market can’t ignore. The swing-and-miss profile has deteriorated, with his swinging-strike rate hitting a new low and his K-BB% nowhere near his 2022 level. He throws six different pitches, but only the sweeper graded out as consistently effective. That’s not a sustainable formula, especially in a hitter-friendly environment like Rogers Centre, where he posted a 6.01 ERA. Staying healthy is one thing — being effective is another — and the underlying metrics suggest a pitcher trending in the wrong direction.

Toronto also holds a significant lineup edge in this matchup. The Blue Jays are built to handle right-handed pitching with patience and power throughout the order, and they’re facing a staff that struggled to suppress contact quality. When you combine that offensive advantage with a clear starting pitching mismatch and home-field conditions that favor Toronto’s bats, the path to separation becomes obvious.

We’re not interested in laying heavy juice here. Instead, we’ll take the plus money on the run line. If Gausman is commanding the splitter — and the early signs this spring suggest he is — Toronto has every opportunity to control this game from the outset and create margin.

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