Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

San Diego +100 over Chicago

Wrigley Field – Chicago, IL

MLB Playoffs – Wildcard Series Game Three

3:08 PM ET. This is about fading laundry and legacy, while targeting variance in a pitcher priced like he’s untouchable.

The Cubs at Wrigley in October is a market darling. They’re the historic brand, the friendly confines, the ivy, the postseason backdrop. San Diego, meanwhile, doesn’t carry that aura. They’re a franchise that’s more known for empty seats than playoff tradition. That alone creates the Cubs tax before we even start talking arms.

That’s where we really want to be. Jameson Taillon has been skating all season on unsustainable luck. His 11-7 record and 3.68 ERA look tidy, but the profile is dripping with red flags: a .232 BABIP, 80% strand rate, a 34% ground ball rate, and a 4.66 FIP. That’s smoke and mirrors. You don’t survive that in October, especially not against a live lineup.

Across from him is Yu Darvish, and while the 5.38 ERA looks gross, it’s surface noise. Dig deeper and you’ll find a 3.68 xERA, 3.94 SIERA, and higher strikeout rate than Taillon. He’s also been victimized by bad variance — a .275 BABIP and 66% strand rate — both marks primed to correct. Strip away the jerseys and Darvish is the guy you want.

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