Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Boston +140 over NY Yankees

Yankee Stadium – Bronx, NY

MLB Playoffs – Wildcard Series Game Three

6:08 PM ET. Game Two went the Yankees’ way and the series heads to a winner-take-all under the lights in the Bronx. Cue the narrative: the Yankees at home in October, the mystique of the pinstripes, the “no way they get bounced here” angle. That’s all baked in, and it’s the exact kind of sentiment we’re looking to fade.

Boston hands the ball to Connelly Early, and the rookie has been nothing short of electric in his brief taste of the show. Through four starts, Early’s posted a 2.33 ERA with peripherals that scream legitimacy — a 2.27 xERA, 0.97 FIP, 13.5 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, and a 47% ground ball rate. The kicker? He’s doing it while battling heavy negative variance with a .378 BABIP and 72% strand rate. In other words, he’s been unlucky and still dominant. Behind him sits the best bullpen in the AL.

New York counters with Cam Schlittler. Decent arm, good fastball, sure — but a 36% ground ball rate, fewer strikeouts, more walks, and a variance profile working in his favor (.284 BABIP, 85% LOB). That’s not a profile you lay -160 with in October. Add in a Yankee bullpen that’s been shaky, and it’s clear who the better value is.

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