Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Boston +150 over New York Yankees

Yankee Stadium – Bronx, NY

MLB Playoffs – Wildcard Series Game Two

6:08 PM ET. The Yankees in October at Yankee Stadium will always be overpriced. Add in the desperation narrative and the “no way they get swept at home by Boston” chatter, and suddenly we have the most inflated line on today’s board. The market loves a storyline, and that’s why the Yankees are carrying a premium.

Carlos Rodón is the so-called savior here. His 18-9 record and 3.08 ERA make him look like a stopper. Scratch the surface and you’ll see he’s living on borrowed time. Rodón’s league-best .228 BABIP screams positive variance. He’s been getting away with it all season, but variance has a way of evening the books — and there’s no better stage for it to happen than right now with the entire market banking on him.

Boston just proved they can hang, taking Game One in comeback fashion behind Garrett Crochet’s brilliance. Their lineup has pop, their bullpen is steady, and the pressure is all on New York. When you can fade a pitcher being priced as if he’s bulletproof, you don’t hesitate.

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