Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Detroit +115 over Cleveland

Progressive Field – Cleveland, OH

MLB Playoffs – Wildcard Series Game Two

1:08 PM ET. Tarik Skubal just dominated Cleveland in Game One with a 14-strikeout gem that sucked the air out of Progressive Field. Detroit left that park looking like the team that belonged, while the Guardians left it looking like a club out of ideas. That should tell you everything, but the market is ignoring the obvious. Instead, it’s buying into the desperation angle — “Cleveland has to win at home to stay alive.” That urgency tax has inflated this price and created the value.

Casey Mize gets the ball for Detroit. His 14-6 record, 3.87 ERA, and supporting peripherals (3.70 xERA, 3.89 FIP) tell us he’s legit. He’s also been on the wrong end of variance all season with an elevated BABIP. Tanner Bibee counters for Cleveland, and he’s the name-brand option. His 12-11 record with a 4.24 ERA doesn’t match the reputation. His xERA is respectable (3.60), but the FIP of 4.34 is far less flattering, and his BABIP has been friendlier. Strip away the jerseys and it’s obvious: Detroit is throwing the steadier pitcher.

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