Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Colorado +195 over San Francisco

Oracle Park – San Francisco, CA

4:05 PM ET. The storyline is Justin Verlander, and the market loves a storyline. At 43, he’s a Hall of Famer, and with retirement rumors swirling, bettors are lining up to send him out on a high note. That’s what this price is built on: laundry and legacy. Strip that away, and you’ve got a 3-10 pitcher backed by one of the weakest lineups in baseball.

Colorado, meanwhile, has nothing to lose and the only live arm in this matchup in Kyle Freeland. The Rockies are eliminated, free-rolling, and perfectly positioned to spoil the farewell tour. San Francisco is eliminated too, but the difference is their motivation: youth in the lineup, auditions for next year, and very little reason to push.

This line is all about Verlander’s name, not his current value. We fade the narrative, grab the overlay, and take our chances with Colorado at a price that has been artificially inflated.

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