Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Baltimore +125 over NY Yankees

Yankee Stadium – Bronx, NY

7:05 PM ET. Strip away the names on the jerseys and just look at the mound matchup. It’s not close. Trevor Rogers is sitting with a 1.35 ERA and a 2.42 FIP in 17 starts. He’s been nails, flat out. Will Warren, meanwhile, is a league-average arm with a 4.35 ERA and a 4.00 FIP. That’s not an opinion — those are facts. Rogers should be priced as the chalk here.

So why isn’t he? Because the market doesn’t price talent; it prices perception. The Yankees are chasing the AL East, the Bronx Zoo is buzzing, and the oddsmakers know the betting public will gladly pay a tax to ride with “October Yankees baseball.” All the noise about banners, tradition, and “World Series #28 loading” is just whitewashing a reality that has Baltimore sending the better pitcher at a plus price.

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