Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Los Angeles Angels +125 over Houston

Angel Stadium – Anaheim, CA

9:38 PM ET. This time of year, you’ll hear the same tired refrain: must win. Houston “has to have this one” to stay alive in the Wild Card chase. Great. But “must win” doesn’t mean “will win,” and more often than not it means the market is slapping a tax on a team because of urgency. That’s what’s happening here.

Jason Alexander gets the ball for Houston with an xERA north of 4.70 and a FIP over 5.00. Those are junkyard numbers. Kyle Hendricks goes for the Halos, and while he’s not an ace, his underlying profile (xERA 4.00, FIP 4.76) is cleaner. That makes Hendricks the better option in truth, even if Alexander’s surface W-L record tricks the boxscore readers.

Houston’s pedigree and “desperation” are the only reasons they’re favored here. The Angels are at home, throwing the truer pitcher, and we’re being asked to pay nothing for it. Wrong side favored. Halos.

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