Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

New York Mets -105 over Chicago Cubs

Wrigley Field – Chicago, IL

7:40 PM ET. Shota Imanaga keeps skating by, and we’re not buying it. His 3.37 ERA is built on sand — a .212 BABIP, an 86% strand rate, and a fly-ball profile with no velocity behind it. That’s not skill, that’s positive variance, and it won’t hold forever. His 4.78 FIP tells the real story, and the Mets’ lineup has more than enough juice to expose him.

Enter Nolan McLean, who isn’t smoke and mirrors. The rookie has been electric — 96 MPH heat, a 64% ground-ball rate, a 2.42 FIP, and true swing-and-miss stuff. His variance numbers are far less inflated, and his skill set plays directly into the Cubs’ weakness. Chicago likes to elevate, McLean forces the ball into the dirt. It’s a poor matchup for them.

This game is priced like a coin flip at Wrigley, but it isn’t one. Imanaga’s luck is running on fumes, and McLean has the tools to dominate. Wrong team favored, Mets win.

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