Pittsburgh +102 over CINCINNATI
Great American Ballpark – Cincinnati, OH

6:40. Hunter Greene is being priced like he’s Paul Skenes’ equal, but peel back the layers and it’s not close. Greene has been propped up all year by variance — a .238 BABIP, an 80% strand rate — numbers that don’t hold forever. He misses bats, yes, but he also serves up hard contact and induces grounders just 31% of the time. His 3.37 FIP and 2.6 WAR are solid, not special.

Skenes, meanwhile, is a different animal. A 2.42 FIP, a 2.61 xERA, and a 6.1 WAR on a Pirates team that can’t hit a lick. He creates soft contact, rolls grounders at 45%, and carries an arsenal that would have him sitting at 18–5 if he wore a Reds uniform instead of black and gold. The only reason we’re getting Skenes at plus money is the logo on his jersey.

The market is clinging to Cincinnati’s “must-win” narrative with their ace on the hill. That’s noise. The value is with the actual ace. Pittsburgh.