Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

NY Mets +100 over Chicago

7:40 PM ET. The Mets have fallen out of the final Wild Card spot and are now locked in a tooth-and-nail battle with the Reds for the last playoff berth. That is a bad look for a team that comfortably led the East and the NL League standings in Mid-June. The further narratives surrounding New York really diminish their stock further. This is the highest payroll in baseball. The Mets signed Juan Soto in the offseason — not only to stick it to the Yankees, but to bolster their lineup and make a push for the World Series which was the goal for this season. Yet somehow, the Mets find themselves losing to the likes of the Nationals and skidding out at the worst possible time. That’s what deflates their price here but also creates the opportunity.

The Cubs, meanwhile, have clinched a playoff berth and hold the top Wild Card comfortably with just six games left and a 3.5-game lead. Chicago looks every bit the World Series contender, while New York looks anything but. Add in Cade Horton, a standout rookie 11-game winner with a 2.64 ERA, and it’s no surprise the market is lining up to fade the Mets.

However, this is where the value lies. David Peterson may not have looked his best recently, but he induces ground balls at a clip north of 50%. That profile is tailor-made to slow down a Cubs lineup that loves to elevate. In a spot where perception has driven the number toward Chicago, Peterson’s ability to keep the ball down gives the Mets a real shot to stay in range. The fact that the Mets are priced at a near pick em all but confirms that New York is no easy out here. Had the Mets had any semblance of equity in market perception they would be the chalk here. The value is with New York.

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