Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Workington A.F.C +185 (To Win in Full Time) over FC United of Manchester

Borough Park – Workington, England

England FA Trophy

10:00 AM ET. The Red Rebels of FC United have had the better of this matchup over time, taking four of the last six, including a 0–0 draw here a month ago when they were favored. We remember it well, because we were on Workington that day at +230 and nearly got paid. Fast forward to now and the market has trimmed that number. That’s not random — that’s the market sending a signal.

On paper, this one shouldn’t be close. FC United sit sixth in the Northern Premier League, chasing a playoff berth, while Workington are stuck in 20th, sitting in the drop zone. Eleven points separate them. So why the short price? Because the books know this isn’t a league fixture. This is the FA Trophy — and cup competitions are where chaos reigns.

The Rebels continue to dominate at Broadhurst Park but can’t carry that form on the road. They were blanked 1–0 by Prescot Cables last weekend and remain unreliable travelers. Workington, meanwhile, are quietly stubborn at Borough Park. They may not win often, but they rarely roll over.

This line tells the story. The market expects a game. It expects pushback. It expects Workington to be right in it. FCU looks like the easy side — it isn’t. The Reds are live here again, and the FA Trophy loves an upset.

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