Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Billiercay Town  +140 (FT) over Hednesford Town

New Lodge – Basildon, Essex

FA Cup Qualification – UK Soccer

2:45 PM ET. The Pitmen have been riding a wave of hype, climbing out of Staffordshire feeder leagues into the Northern Premier and drawing headlines as the “next big thing” in non-league football. Fair play to them, but Saturday told the story. At home in Keys Park, with all the momentum and narrative behind them, they couldn’t finish the job against Billericay. Now they pack up for a 163-mile trip into Essex on a short turnaround. That is not the spot you want to be in.

The market will tell you Billericay’s days as a powerhouse are behind them. They sit 16th in the Isthmian table, only three points clear of the drop zone, and their failed promotion push last year has been framed as a “slip.” We’re not buying it. This is a proper club, with proper resources, and a replay at New Lodge resets the table in their favor.

Hednesford had their chance. They couldn’t close. The books opened Billericay the chalk for a reason, and the inflated number on the Pitmen is purely narrative-driven. If not for the headlines, they’d be priced closer to +200, not +150. That’s the inefficiency. We’ll step into it.

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