Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Falkirk +165 (To Win in Full Time) over Hibernian

Falkirk Stadium - Falkirk, Scotland

Scottish Premiership

2:45 PM ET. Falkirk are one of the newcomers to the Scottish Premiership in 2025–26, promoted from the Championship last season. As is often the case with promotees, life at the top has been difficult. The Bairns sit 10th in the table and are already flirting with the relegation zone.

Hibernian, meanwhile, come in with an entirely different profile. The Hibees were one of last year’s success stories, pushing for a Europa League bid and finishing near the top end of the Premiership table. They’ve carried that momentum forward this season, sitting third in the league and looking every bit like a side with continental aspirations yet again.

On the surface, this looks like a mismatch, but the market says otherwise. Despite Hibs’ curb appeal,

they aren’t priced as overwhelming favorites here. Falkirk are being given a live number, one that reflects more than just form or stature. The fact remains: any newly promoted team facing Hibernian is going to take back a bigger price because of the name, but when the market resists inflating Hibs further, it’s worth noting.

Then there’s the spot. Hibernian travel to Glasgow on Saturday to face Celtic — the ultimate litmus test in Scottish football. That match looms large and creates a potential look-ahead angle. For Falkirk, this becomes an opportunity to claim a blue-chip scalp, the kind of result that can re-define their season as their own boss put it.

What we have is a highly motivated home dog, taking back an inflated price at a live number regardless, and facing an opponent with one eye already on the weekend. That’s the anatomy of an upset.

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