Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Aston Villa +150 (To Win in Full Time) over Brentford

G-Tech Community Stadium – Brentford, England

England EFL Cup

3:00 PM ET. Brentford are being priced here as if they’re the sharper, more reliable side, but the numbers don’t support it. Aston Villa have looked dreadful in the league — two points from five matches and not a single goal scored — and that’s exactly why we’re getting them at a discount. This is the market punishing Villa for poor optics rather than weighing the matchup correctly.

These two sides met in August. Villa closed as +110 favorites, outshot Brentford 17-9, held 77% possession, completed 400 more passes, and won corners 9-2. The Villans dominated every measurable category and still lost 1-0. Fast forward a month, and suddenly Villa are +150? That’s not an adjustment based on performance; it’s an overreaction to narrative.

This is buying low and selling high in its purest form. Brentford’s stock has risen because of results, while Villa’s has cratered. Yet the underlying data shows Villa were the better side in the most recent head-to-head. At this price, they don’t need to be perfect — they just need to convert the same chances they created last time.

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