Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Aveley +170 (To Win in Full Time) over Folkestone Invicta

Parkside – Aveley, England

England Isthmian Premier Division

2:45 PM ET. If you recall Friday, we were on Folkestone Invicta against Maidstone in FA Cup qualifying and cashed that ticket. Invicta, lined at 2-1, went into Maidstone’s park and won 2-0. It was a big scalp against a side that made headlines last year with its Cup run to the fifth round. Now Folkestone is suddenly in the spotlight.

The Stripes are unbeaten in six league games, but that sort of run combined with national attention inflates a market. The Stripes are now the story, and that makes them overvalued. They’re priced at +155 away to Aveley, and that’s an invitation to fade.

Aveley sits mid-table, not on anyone’s radar. They don’t have the “giant killer” narrative behind them, just a small Essex club grinding out results. Still, they’re +170 at home, which is virtually parity with the hottest team in the league. That’s a misprice.

Folkestone goes from hunter to hunted, stepping into a tricky away ground against a side eager to knock them down. Aveley at home is not some pushover. This is the exact time to fade perception and step in.

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