Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Workington N A.F.C +230 (To Win in Full Time) over FC United of Manchester

Borough Park – Workington, England

England Northern Premier League

2:45 PM ET. FC United sits at the top of the table while Workington is stuck near the bottom. That contrast alone is why this line jumps off the page. A top-of-table side traveling north to face a relegation struggler shouldn’t be priced this way—yet here we are.

FC United’s gaudy record is bloated by home cooking. Four of their six matches came at Broadhurst Park, where they thrive. Away from Moston, they’re far less imposing. Now they hit the road for one of the longest trips in the division, 135 miles into the Lake District, where Borough Park has a way of chewing up would-be contenders.

Workington’s form looks awful, but context matters. They pushed Warrington Rylands to the brink, drew Ashton United (the same Ashton that hammered FCU 3-1), and lost tight games against other contenders. The Reds are competing, not capitulating, and those margins suggest they’re far more live than the table says.

This price reflects perception, not reality. Workington isn’t the easy mark the market is treating them as, and with the draw sitting near +300, oddsmakers themselves hint that a result is very much in play. We’ll swing for all three points.

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