Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

 Robert W. Plaster Stadium, Springfield, MO

Stream: CBSSN

Missouri St. +128 over Kennesaw St.

7:30 PM EST. Two Conference USA teams with a combined two wins between them. When neither team can get out of its own way, you take the home dog at plus money and don't overthink it.

Here's the thing about Kennesaw's shiny 4-1 record against the spread: it was built as an underdog. The Owls have covered three straight while going 0-3 straight up in those games — moral victories, not real ones. Now they're being asked to do a completely different job: lay points on the road, in a hostile stadium, on a Wednesday night. They're 1-1 ATS as favorites of three or more this season, and teams that can't finish games don't make good road favorites. Close losses to Arkansas State (17-14) and Jacksonville State (27-26) say this team finds ways to lose, not win.

The matchup itself is closer to a coin flip than the price suggests. Kennesaw scores 22.6 points a game; Missouri State scores 21.8 — that's not a gap, that's a rounding error. The Bears can throw it: Skyler Locklear is completing 65.7% of his passes and Isaiah Myers has 419 receiving yards, and they'll be working against a Kennesaw pass defense giving up 219 yards a game. Yes, Missouri State's defense is a problem — 32.4 points allowed per game and gashed on the ground — but the Owls settle for field goals as often as anyone, and in a game where both teams live in the low 20s, one home crowd-fueled break is the whole ballgame.

So we'll gladly take the worst of it at the best price. Missouri State is at home, getting more than a field goal on the spread and +129 to win it outright, against a road favorite that hasn't actually won a football game in a month. Ugly games are decided by a bounced ball and a home crowd — give us the dog. We are taking Missouri State straight up on the money line and nobody feels good about anything except the ticket.

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