Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Mackay Stadium, Reno, NV

Streaming: CW

Texas State -2½ -105 over North Texas 

12:00 PM EST. North Texas just beat UNLV 44-6, and suddenly the Mean Green are everybody's new Group of Six sweetheart. We understand it. They looked fantastic. They also outgained Indiana in their opener despite the ugly final score, so there are now two games worth of evidence for anyone looking to make the case that North Texas is much better than expected. Meanwhile, Texas State is 0-2, has turned the ball over six times and just found a particularly painful way to lose to UTSA in the final seconds. So here's our question: If North Texas is this good and Texas State is this bad, why the hell are the Bobcats favored?

Texas State's 0-2 record doesn't tell us much about how it has actually played. The Bobcats were competitive with Texas despite falling into a huge early hole, and last week they had every opportunity to beat UTSA before turnovers and some ridiculous fourth-down results buried them. UTSA converted five of six fourth downs while Texas State went 0-for-1, and the Roadrunners still needed a touchdown in the final seconds to win. That's not something we're interested in projecting forward. Texas State has been making expensive mistakes at precisely the wrong moments. The market sees 0-2. We see a team whose performances have been considerably better than its record.

Now look at North Texas. That 44-6 win is exactly the type of result that sends a team's stock through the roof. The Mean Green didn't merely win; they humiliated UNLV. But UNLV was coming out of an unusual early-season travel sequence that included Week 0 and a trip to Hawaii, and now North Texas has to leave Denton after everybody spent the week telling them how wonderful they are. More importantly, the Mean Green secondary is dealing with injuries against a Texas State offense capable of attacking it through the air. There is some uncertainty surrounding Bobcats receivers Beau Sparks and Zechariah Sample, but assuming they're available, this is hardly the matchup we'd choose to start buying North Texas after its stock just went to the moon.

And that's really the entire handicap. We're selling North Texas high and buying Texas State low. One team is 2-0 against the number and coming off a 38-point demolition. The other is 0-2 and just ripped its own heart out in the final seconds. Yet when they meet in San Marcos, bookmakers aren't making North Texas the favorite. They're asking you to lay points with the winless team. That's going to look completely backwards to a lot of bettors, which is exactly how we like it. Let everybody chase last Saturday's 44-6 box score. We'll take the 0-2 Bobcats at a cheap price before somebody notices they've been playing a hell of a lot better than their record suggests.

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