Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Galaxy Stadium, Lubbock, TX

Streaming: FOX

Texas Tech -7½ -115 over Houston

How far is too far? That's the question here because this number has been chopped to pieces. Before the season, Texas Tech was sitting around -13½ in this matchup. Now we're laying -7½ at home. That's a six-point move, and it happened because the first two weeks produced exactly the kind of results that make bettors fall in love with an underdog. Houston is 2-0, ranked, Willie Fritz is one of those coaches everybody loves taking points with, and Texas Tech hasn't looked anything like the Big 12 monster people expected. Suddenly Houston +7½ looks like the sophisticated side. Apparently everybody discovered the same secret.

The centerpiece of the Houston argument is Oregon State. Both teams played the Beavers, Houston handled them comfortably, while Texas Tech was outgained 472-352 in an unimpressive 11-point victory. Wonderful. Put it on a PowerPoint presentation. Maybe add some graphs and hand out laser pointers at the sportsbook. It means absolutely nothing to us. Football doesn't work like algebra. Houston played Oregon State better than Texas Tech did, therefore Houston represents value against Texas Tech? That's the kind of tidy comparative-score handicapping that gives people something to talk about for 20 minutes on podcasts before they go bet the same side everybody else is betting.

Houston has become the fashionable dog here. That's what interests us. Before anybody played a game, oddsmakers were willing to hang Texas Tech -13½. Two weeks later, bettors have forced that number all the way through 13, 10 and down to 7½. At what point does all the supposed value on Houston disappear? Seven and a half isn't some hidden bargain anymore. Everybody knows Willie Fritz can coach. Everybody knows Texas Tech hasn't impressed. Everybody knows Houston crushed Oregon State while Tech struggled with the same opponent. You're not discovering those things. You're paying for them. The Cougars have gone from an overlooked underdog to the dog everybody at the window wants to pet.

We're going the other way. Texas Tech hasn't lived up to expectations, and that's precisely why we're no longer being asked to lay 13½. The market has already punished the Red Raiders severely for what we've seen through two games. Now we're getting close to a touchdown with the team that was considered considerably superior before everybody became an expert on Houston. Forget revenge. Forget weekday ATS records. Forget what happened in this series three years ago. And please spare us the fucking Oregon State transitive property. Houston has become the trendy dog, Texas Tech has become the overpriced-stock-turned-clearance-item, and six points have disappeared from the original number. We'll buy the Red Raiders after everybody else has sold them.

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