Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Michigan +7 over Texas

Camping World Stadium – Orlando, FL

Citrus Bowl

3:00 PM ET. Texas is being treated as if it has already won the Citrus Bowl— but when you strip away the noise and examine the resume, the pricing feels far more rooted in perception than substance. Michigan, on the other hand, walks into this matchup carrying every storyline imaginable: the coaching upheaval combined with the emotional weight of a let-down after the Ohio State loss. Those distractions haven’t just shaped opinion — they’ve skewed the number. The market isn’t jumping on Texas who has been busy griping about missing the playoff, it’s fading Michigan who was one win away from the big dance itself. That creates opportunity.

Texas does have marquee wins on paper, but each comes with qualifiers. Their victory over Oklahoma came against a Sooners team dealing with an injured quarterback and flaws that had been bubbling under the surface. Their win over Texas A&M owed as much to Aggie miscues as it did Longhorn execution. Against Vanderbilt, the Dores nearly stormed back from a 24-point deficit. Layer in overtime escapes against Mississippi State and Kentucky, a loss to a four-win Florida team, and a no-contest at Georgia, and the Horns profile looks far shakier than the market suggests. The question then becomes should they be laying this kind of lumber? Period.

Michigan’s identity, by contrast, is stable — even if the surrounding narrative isn’t. The Wolverines defend, they control line play, they shrink possessions, and they force opponents into uncomfortable spots. They did that against the Buckeyes even if Ohio State got away from them in the end. The Wolverines style is designed to keep games inside the margin and travels exceptionally well in underdog roles. Michigan doesn’t need shootout variance or offensive fireworks to compete; they need discipline and defensive resistance — all traits they still possess.

This number isn’t about who the better football team is on a neutral site — it’s about reaction. Reactions to headlines. Reactions to optics. All of which can lead to bad handicapping practices. Texas may very well win this but double digit margins, but nothing in their body of work suggests they should be laying this kind of price. The value lies with the side that has been discounted by narrative rather than performance. Michigan doesn’t need to win outright to reward backers — they just need to play their game. The points are the play.

Take advantage of BET365's early MLB payout offer! 

For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 5 runs ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 5 runs ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

v