Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

San Diego State +220 ML over North Texas

University Stadium – Albuquerque, NM

New Mexico Bowl

5:45 PM ET. On the surface, North Texas looks like the side that should be trusted. They spent much of the season ranked, hovered within the College Football Playoff picture, and were one win away from turning a dream season into a historic one. That dream, however, ended abruptly in New Orleans.

The Mean Green’s collapse at Tulane was more than just a loss—it was a season-defining gut punch. A CFP berth was on the table, and instead of seizing the moment, North Texas unraveled. Since then, the program has experienced the departure of its head coach, Eric Morris. That kind of disruption matters, especially in a bowl setting where emotional buy-in is often the deciding factor. This is not the bowl North Texas envisioned playing in, and it’s fair to question whether they arrive fully engaged or simply fulfilling an obligation.

San Diego State enters from a different emotional angle. They return to the scene of a crime with a chance to right a wrong. The Aztecs also fell short of a major goal, missing out on the Mountain West Championship game after a hard-fought overtime loss in this stadium against New Mexico on Black Friday. But the context is different. While disappointing, that loss didn’t rip away a playoff berth or fundamentally change the program’s trajectory. Instead, it leaves a veteran group with something tangible to chase: a tenth win and a statement victory over a ranked opponent.

That matters. For San Diego State, this bowl is an opportunity, not a consolation prize. It’s a chance to finish the season on a high note, prove they belong in conversations alongside teams like North Texas, and remind everyone that they are still one of the more reliable programs in the Group of Five landscape.

Meanwhile, North Texas is being asked to lay points amid uncertainty, turnover, and deflated expectations. That’s not a profile we’re eager to trust. When motivation is unclear and leadership has changed, the risk multiplies. In a game filled with unknowns, the safest play is backing the side we know will be locked in. San Diego State checks that box—and at a plus price, that’s value that we’re happy to take.

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