Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Washington State -105 ML over Utah State

Albertsons Stadium – Boise, ID

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

2:00 PM ET. Perhaps this is less about backing Washington State and far more about stepping in front of a market darling. Utah State has been one of the best covering teams in the country, sitting at 10–2 against the spread, and that alone is driving their favoritism here. But that exact profile is why this number deserves skepticism. Teams that cash at that rate all season rarely do so indefinitely — and bowl games are where those corrections tend to surface. And for what it’s worth, the Cougars are a sneaky team so perhaps it is actually about backing them too. We get to do so at an enhanced price.

Strip away the ATS records and compare résumés. Washington State has spent the season testing itself against legitimate competition. The Cougars went into Oxford and gave Ole Miss a game. They were also in position to win games at Virginia and James Madison. The names listed are three programs that either reached or flirted with College Football Playoff contention. Those performances weren’t flukes; they revealed a team better than their record entails.

Utah State, by contrast, isn’t built on matchup edges or superior talent; it’s built on a season-long ATS heater that the books are daring bettors to chase one more time. So they are favored exclusively for that reason alone. That’s where Washington State offers the value. If the Cougars bring the same version of themselves that challenged Ole Miss, Virginia, and James Madison, this game won’t even be close. They’re more physical, more battle-tested, and more accustomed to playing in high-leverage environments. The Cougars should be the chalk here, not the Aggies. We’re playing it that way.

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