Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

LOUISVILLE -6½ over Virginia Cardinal Stadium – Louisville, KY

3:30 PM ET. Virginia just had their moment. They shocked Florida State at home, fans stormed the field, and now they’re ranked for the first time in forever. The emotional high from that win is baked into this number.

Louisville, meanwhile, sits undefeated, unranked, and unnoticed — just how we like it. They’ve quietly won seven straight games and yet the market yawns. The fact that the Cards are favored over a ranked, red-hot Virginia side tells you everything.

Teams coming off emotional, field-storming upsets almost always underperform the following week, especially on the road. The market doesn’t care; it’s still reacting to headlines. But oddsmakers don’t price headlines — they price probability. And that price screams Louisville.

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Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

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