Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

GEORGIA STATE +20½ over James Madison Central Park Stadium – Atlanta, GA

3:30 PM ET; James Madison is the darling of the betting market. They’re 4–0 against the spread, covering by an average of 13 points per game. They’ve been wrecking teams and cashing tickets, which means they’re now carrying a heavy tax.

Georgia State, meanwhile, is a mess. They’ve been torched by everyone, surrendering 70 to Vanderbilt and 63 to Ole Miss. They haven’t covered in five straight and look hopeless. So why is this spread “only” 20½? Because it’s already inflated.

The books don’t hand out free covers. JMU’s reputation has outpaced its actual performance, and that’s when the pendulum swings. Georgia State has been priced into oblivion — no one wants them, and that’s when we do.

You don’t need to like the Panthers to bet them. You just need to understand that value is a function of perception. The market perception on Georgia State is as bad as it gets, and that’s when bad teams become good bets.

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