Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

CINCINNATI -1½ over Iowa State

Nippert Stadium – Cincinnati, OH

12:00 PM ET. This is one of those classic setups where the wrong side looks right. Iowa State is undefeated and ranked #14 in the country. Cincinnati is unranked and laying points. That’s all the average bettor needs to see before slamming the dog. We’ve seen this movie before.

The Cyclones’ résumé looks shiny, but it’s hollow. They barely got past Arkansas State, needed luck to edge Kansas State in Dublin, and escaped Iowa by a field goal. They’re a few bounces away from 3–2. Their record flatters them.

Cincinnati’s 3–1 mark, on the other hand, could easily be perfect. Their lone loss came against Nebraska at Arrowhead, where they were live until the final series. Since then, they’ve quietly played like a complete team, and the market hasn’t noticed.

Unranked laying points to ranked is always a red flag. It looks wrong, which makes it right. That’s not an accident — it’s the signal. Iowa State is the “name,” Cincinnati is the number. We bet numbers, not names.

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