Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

San Jose St -2½ over New Mexico

CEFCU Stadium – San Jose, CA

10:00 PM ET. Here’s the same setup in a different uniform. On paper, New Mexico looks like the obvious call. They hung tough at Michigan, upset UCLA, and crushed New Mexico State last week. The market sees an underdog with “résumé value” against a 1–3 San Jose squad that hasn’t impressed anybody. That’s the surface-level read.

Now let’s go deeper. If New Mexico were truly as strong as perception paints them, they would not be catching points to San Jose State. Period. Oddsmakers don’t build lines on storylines — they build them on probability. And probability says San Jose has the better setup.

San Jose’s profile is ugly, which is exactly why this works. They lost at CMU as double-digit chalk, got smoked by Texas, blew a winnable game at Stanford, and looked shaky against Idaho. That résumé pushes every bettor into the Lobos’ corner. Yet San Jose is still favored. That’s no accident.

There’s also the look-ahead factor. New Mexico has Boise State on deck in their biggest conference game of the year. Sandwiched between rival NMSU and Boise, San Jose is the spot no one cares about — except the oddsmakers.

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