Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Sam Houston State -2 over New Mexico St

Aggie Memorial Stadium – Las Cruces, NM

9:00 PM ET. Why on earth is an 0-4 Sam Houston State team spotting points on the road in primetime? That’s the exact question the market wants you to ask. The Bearkats haven’t won a game, haven’t covered a spread, and on paper look like the worst team in FBS. Yet here they are, spotting points on the road in a nationally televised Thursday nighter. That’s not an error. That’s the tell.

Everyone and their dog will look to New Mexico State as the “easy” side. They’ve got the better record, a home game, and the optics that scream trap. When a team looks too good to be true at plus-points in their own barn, it usually is.

The Bearkats’ ugly start has come against a brutal schedule: at UNLV, at Western Kentucky, at Hawaii, and hosting Texas when the Longhorns were ranked #1. That’s a gauntlet. NMSU’s resume doesn’t compare — wins over FCS Bryant and a bad Tulsa team, plus blowout losses to Louisiana Tech and New Mexico.

So why is a winless SHSU team favored? Because the market knows. It knows that context matters, it knows that the Bearkats are battle-tested, and it knows the Aggies are being inflated because of optics. A winless team laying points on the road in primetime? It looks insane. Which is why we’re in.

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