Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

PENN STATE -3.5 over Oregon

Saturday, September 27, 2025 
Beaver Stadium – State College, PA

7:35 PM EST. Oregon has been a darling so far in 2025, taking down Oklahoma State and Oregon State convincingly. Add in their win over Penn State in last year’s Big Ten Championship, and the Ducks look like a dream underdog. But sometimes the obvious side is the wrong side, and the number tells us exactly that.

Penn State is 0–3 ATS and looks like a disappointment. But those results came while laying 40-plus points against non-competitive teams. Spreads that big almost guarantee distorted outcomes. The Lions haven’t been tested yet, and now the perception is they’ve underwhelmed. That’s fuel for value when a real opponent finally comes to town.

The whiteout in Happy Valley is one of the most intimidating environments in college football. Oregon is stepping into that cauldron as a shiny underdog, being offered a number that looks like low-hanging fruit. Oddsmakers know where the public money will flow, yet they shaded the line toward Penn State anyway.

This is both a situational play and a numbers play. Oregon’s stock is too high, Penn State’s too low, and the setting couldn’t be tougher for the Ducks. The market screams Oregon, but the number says PSU. Lay the points.

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