Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

NORTHERN ILLINOIS +110 ML over San Diego State

Brigham Field at Huskie Stadium – Dekalb, IL

3:30 PM ET. San Diego State’s stock skyrocketed last week after destroying Cal 34–0 as a two-TD underdog. The market doesn’t forget that type of win. Meanwhile, NIU was crushed by Mississippi State, confirming the perception that they’re out of their depth. Put those two results together, and the instinct is obvious: bet SDSU.

Yet here we are, and the Aztecs aren’t even trusted to lay more than a field goal in Dekalb. In fact, they’re barely favored at all. That’s the signal.

If SDSU had lost to Cal as expected, they’d be taking back points here. Instead, they’re being asked to spot them on the road, purely because of one overvalued result. That’s a textbook overreaction.

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