Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Saturday, March 21

Saint Louis +12½ over Michigan

KeyBank Center – Buffalo, NY

12:10 PM EST. Saint Louis made a statement in the first round—102 points and 66 in the paint against a solid Georgia defense. That wasn’t a fluke. That was a balanced, confident team playing to its identity. The Billikens rank inside the top tier nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. That’s the profile of a team fully capable of hanging with a No. 1 seed.

Michigan is excellent, but they’re not invincible.

Since the injury to L.J. Cason, the Wolverines have looked more vulnerable. The offense has been less fluid, and the margin for error has tightened. They’ve had to grind through close games against Ohio State and Wisconsin, and Purdue handled them decisively in the Big Ten title game. This is still a strong team, but it’s no longer operating at peak dominance.

Saint Louis has weapons.

Robbie Avila stretches the floor and pulls Michigan’s bigs away from the rim, which opens driving lanes and scoring opportunities. The Billikens also have multiple shooters who can knock down threes, and that’s exactly how underdogs stay within range against bigger teams. When a team can score from multiple spots and keep the pace steady, double-digit spreads become very difficult to cover.

And confidence matters in March.

Saint Louis rediscovered its rhythm at the right time, and they’re playing loose, aggressive basketball. Michigan carries the pressure of expectations as a No. 1 seed. That dynamic often keeps games tighter than the number suggests.

Michigan likely advances. But this number is too high for a matchup between two efficient, well-coached teams.

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