Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Dartmouth +7 -110 over Pennsylvania

7:00 PM EST The Dartmouth Big Green may not jump off the page at first glance, but there’s sneaky value in taking the points against the Pennsylvania Quakers tonight. Dartmouth has dropped five of its last seven overall, which is exactly why this number is inflated. Despite the recent record, the underlying metrics are far more competitive than perception suggests. The Big Green are averaging 76 points per game on 44.5% shooting while allowing 75 points on 43.8% from the field. That’s essentially break-even basketball. They also shoot a strong 36.7% from deep and 74.2% at the line — two areas that are critical when you’re backing an underdog trying to stay within the number late. In Ivy League play, margins tend to tighten, and Dartmouth’s efficiency profile suggests they’re far more live than their recent win-loss column indicates.

Penn has been solid at home (10-2), but this matchup is tighter than that record implies. The Quakers are shooting 44.4% from the floor — just 0.4 percentage points better than what Dartmouth typically allows — and defensively they surrender 45.5% shooting to opponents. That’s a key mismatch in favor of the dog, as Dartmouth shoots 44.6% themselves and should find clean looks. While Penn won the first meeting 84-74, that game featured an offensive spike that doesn’t align with how these teams have trended recently. The Quakers are allowing 74.5 points per game on the season and rank outside the top 200 nationally in scoring defense. If this turns into the half-court, possession-by-possession battle Ivy games often become, grabbing points carries clear mathematical value.

Situationally, Dartmouth also fits. The road team has won six of the last seven involving the Big Green, and they’ve consistently started well in conference road night games, winning the first half in five of the last six such spots. They’re coming off a gritty 64-63 win over Columbia where they shot poorly overall (35.7%) yet still executed late and hit 94% from the free-throw line — a strong indicator of late-game cover potential. Meanwhile, Penn is just 6-8 against teams above .500 and sits 13-11 overall, hardly the profile of a team that should be laying a comfortable margin against a comparable conference opponent. With similar shooting splits, defensive numbers that don’t separate much, and recent form baked heavily into the line, the value sits squarely with Dartmouth and the points.

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