Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Dayton +4½ -110 over Saint Louis

7:00 PM EST Dayton is the side tonight at home vs. Saint Louis because the setup screams “public trap.” Saint Louis is 25–2, they’re ranked (#23/#24 range), and that shiny number beside their name pulls in casual money automatically. Add in the fact they’re favored on the road against an unranked opponent, and that’s one of those classic spots where the market can get a little too comfortable backing the “better team” without asking if the price is inflated.

This is exactly why home underdogs are so attractive in college hoops — especially ones with a legitimate profile. Dayton isn’t some random team catching points; they’ve been tested and they’re at home in a tough environment. When you see a ranked road favorite laying points, it’s worth pausing and asking: is this number built for the matchup… or built for the betting public? With Saint Louis’ record and ranking, the answer often becomes “built for the public.”

The schedule gap adds fuel to it. Saint Louis’ non-conference strength of schedule is 314th, which is major red flag for a team carrying a flashy record. Dayton’s NCSOS is 153rd, and their overall SOS sits around 51st, meaning they’ve been through far more resistance. Put it all together — home dog, inflated perception on the ranked road favorite, and a massive schedule-quality discrepancy — and the play is clear: Dayton.

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer

Bet365 Early Payout – How It Works

Straight Bets:

If the team you back to win goes up by the designated number of points at any time during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full immediately, even if the opposing team later comes back and wins the game.

Parlays & Same Game Parlays:
If a team you’ve selected goes up by the designated number of points that selection will be marked as WON in My Bets. Any remaining legs of the parlay will continue to run as normal.

Once a selection is marked as won under the Early Payout rules, it cannot be reversed, regardless of what happens later in the game.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------