Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

MARQUETTE +120 ML over Oklahoma

Fiserv Forum – Milwaukee, WI

2:00 PM ET. Marquette opened as the short favorite in this matchup, and the minute the number hit the board, the market stampeded to Oklahoma. That’s exactly how we end up with the former chalk now sitting at a plus price — and anytime the line loops back like that, value usually appears on the side that was initially respected.

Let’s get to the substance. Oklahoma’s start looks strong on paper, but the reality behind it is paper-thin. The Sooners have played the softest schedule imaginable — literally bottom-tier, 356th in KenPom strength of schedule. When you spend your first stretch feasting on the lowest rungs of Division I, you build a record, but not a résumé. Marquette, by contrast, has already dealt with competition roughly 100 spots tougher in the same metric. The difference in preparation is enormous.

Then there’s the matchup itself. Oklahoma has already shown cracks against teams that speed them up and demand two-way stamina. Their two tests — Nebraska and Gonzaga — resulted in two losses, and the Huskers hung over 100 points on them. Marquette plays even faster than both of those squads, and they do so with far more structure. Tempo is not Oklahoma’s friend here.

Now the Sooners must attempt their first true road game of the year inside a rocking Fiserv Forum, against a Marquette team built to run, pressure, and punish defensive lapses. That is a tall order for an OU side that has struggled against anything remotely comparable thus far. The opening line told the truth. Marquette was favored for a reason. We’re taking that reason — at plus money. Golden Eagles outright.   

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